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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 7

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP