Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(8:09) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -2.82 EP

KICK -1.42 EP

32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model