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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 98

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 2-A.Lee punts 61 yards to MIN 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to ARI 43 for 20 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -4.47 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 98, worth -6.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model