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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 6-M.Wile punts 34 yards to ARI 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on ARI-26-Bra.Williams, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 13.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.14 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model