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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to ARI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 31 for 10 yards (41-A.Harris; 30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.18 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model