4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 4-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model