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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 4

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP