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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 52

Houston Texans 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham. (The Punt Hang-time was 5.0)

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.83 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP