Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 66

Houston Texans 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

(3:41) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 21 for 8 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model