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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to HOU 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.75 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model