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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 8

Houston Texans 10 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model