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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP