4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 10 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model