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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 30

New York Jets 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model