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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 19

New York Jets 36 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model