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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 27 – New York Jets 39

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete deep middle to 14-Z.Pascal [92-L.Williams].

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP