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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 27

New York Jets 39 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.39 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model