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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 12

New York Jets 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model