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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (30-G.Odum; 52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model