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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 91

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 37 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-M.Windt. 22-J.Peppers to LAC 33 for 13 yards (43-M.Davis; 23-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 91, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.95 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model