4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:50) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model