Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 35

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-82-O.Charles. PENALTY on LAC-11-G.Davis, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at LAC 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.81 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model