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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 26

Los Angeles Chargers 35 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.65 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model