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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 92

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to LAC 49, Center-47-M.Windt. 22-J.Peppers to LAC 35 for 14 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on CLE-18-D.Ratley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.16 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 92, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 50, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model