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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 45
Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(4:55) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield right guard to LAC 43 for 2 yards (37-J.Addae).
The Three Options
GO
+1.46 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK
-0.77 EP
- 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
- 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
