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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(:46) 4-D.Carr up the middle to SEA 41 for no gain (54-B.Wagner). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model