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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP