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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(3:39) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 27 yards to SEA 38, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-41-K.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.25 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model