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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 24

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(8:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model