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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LV 12, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model