Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.21 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.60 EP

KICK +0.04 EP

50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
50% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model