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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to SF 32 for 6 yards (56-R.Foster).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model