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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model