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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model