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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 23 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 6-J.Scott punts 36 yards to SF 18, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.84 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model