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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 87

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to GB 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-T.Williams to GB 48 for 6 yards (27-A.Colbert).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.47 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP