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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to GB 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.12 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP