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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 90

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to TB 39, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Jackson to TB 48 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.58 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP