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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model