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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-83-R.Gage.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model