4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL-3-M.Bryant was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.21 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model