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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to ATL 14, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 14. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 14 for no gain (17-J.Watson). Penalty on ATL-28-J.Bethel, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.90 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model