4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to PHI 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model