Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(2:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-T.Smith to PHI 34 for 35 yards (31-J.Mills) [77-M.Bennett].

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.49 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model