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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 45
Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0
What Actually Happened
(7:05) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CAR 44 for 1 yard (93-K.Love).
The Three Options
GO
+1.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.92 EP
KICK
-1.06 EP
- 28% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT
+0.21 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
