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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model