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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model