4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 15

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 38

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 4-R.Bullock 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model