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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 45

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to KC 19, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Robinson pushed ob at KC 30 for 11 yards (45-M.Jefferson). CIN-86-M.Schreck was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-30-J.Shaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at KC 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP