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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to DET 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-G.Tate to DET 36 for 9 yards (27-K.Ballage).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model